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Earthquake Prediction Institute
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Megathrust EQ
prediction Information
Nation of EQs Mega EQ warnings Nankai-trough M9.1? EQ prediction info Shikoku median tectonic line
Physical
Wavelets
Keiiti Aki
Work with us
Membership
Japan is a nation of EQs located in subduction
zones. Japan’s 20 km-mesh seismograph network has seen
megathrust and significant EQ genesis processes with Physical Wavelets,
suggesting the predictability of the focuses, fault movements, sizes, and
rupture times around two weeks to three months before the events occur.
Similarly, the Japanese GPS network has seen the 2011 Tohoku megathrust EQ
genesis process with Physical Wavelets, suggesting the predictability of the EQ
and tsunami two months before the events. Their time-prediction accuracies are
within a day by real-time monitoring of the expected rupture processes. To
describe the equations of the EQ genesis processes in real-time for the
predictions, Physical Wavelets quantify the stochastic EQ source parameters of
the online seismic catalogs and the non-differentiable daily displacements of
the GPS network.
We can now use
real-time EQ prediction information as disaster prevention warnings like
typhoons and hurricanes. A summary is here to look for worldwide
collaborations.
Megathrust earthquake prediction information
Megathrust
and many significant earthquakes (EQs) occur in subduction zones. The
subducting oceanic plates are the Northwestern Pacific plate and the Philippine
Sea plate. A nation’s earthquake (EQ) prediction
information is
the megathrust and
significant EQ genesis processes. Physical wavelets quantify the real-time genesis
processes with
GPS stations' daily
displacements
and
online seismic catalogs. The EQ genesis processes
evolve into disaster prevention warnings like typhoons. The 2011 Tohoku
megathrust EQ genesis of 15 months had a disaster prevention warning for the last
three months. We begin the megathrust EQ genesis process like violent typhoon
information for the Nation of EQs.
The EQs having M ≥ 6
from 1983 to 2019 has a distribution overlayed on a google map.
According
to seismic catalogs, a Nation
of EQs (Nation 3) had EQs having M ≥ 6 from 1983 to 7 Sep
2022, 1024 shallow EQs with DEP < 200 km, and 116
deep EQs with DEP ≥ 200 km.
Megathrust EQ (Tsunami) disaster-prevention
warning
The technical details, background physics, and observations in
Japanese patent 5798545
(130 pages with 85 figures) have
extensive updates in
arXiv.
【１】Takeda, F. (2021). A megathrust earthquake genesis process observed
by a Global Positioning System. arXiv.
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2107.02799
【２】Takeda, F. (2022). Large earthquake genesis processes observed
with Physical Wavelets. arXiv.
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2201.02815
【３】Takeda, F. (2022). Significant and megathrust earthquake predictions
by real-time monitoring of the genesis processes with Physical Wavelets. arXiv.
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2208.09486
The observed GSI’s daily
displacement at every GPS station in Tohoku and the Northwestern Pacific
Ocean is a noisy and non-differentiable time series. A mathematical tool named
Physical Wavelets observed the megathrust earthquake genesis process by
quantifying the noisy displacements.
Ryoutsu2 (West coast), Murakami (Top), and Onagawa (East coast) stations are at
the dotted-red line cross-section to show the genesis of the Tohoku crustal
bulge deformation, which was a megathrust earthquake genesis process.
The 2011 Tohoku
M9 and tsunami genesis process
The Tohoku east coast is at the tectonic plate’s eastern edge, overriding the subducting oceanic plate.
The fault plane (500 km in length, 200 km in
width) had coupled two plates together for hundreds of years.
The megathrust earthquake genesis process is
shown as cross-sectional schematics at the red dotted line. Physical Wavelets
quantified Japan’s GPS observations on the 2011 Tohoku M9
megathrust EQ.
In the schematics, the east and west coast
face the Northwestern Pacific Ocean and the Japan Sea. The E, W, and Top are
for the East coast (Onagawa station), West coast (Ryoutsu2 station), and Top
(Murakami station). The Top is a ridge line in Tohoku. Tohoku had three
distinctive phases of crustal bulge deformation, the initial, transitional, and
final phases.
(a)
Initial
phase
The fault surface had coupled
two plates at the subduction zone, generating the tectonic eastward-up and the
oceanic westward-down movement for hundreds of years. The coupling had created
a regular deformation, as shown. The regular slow deformation had the initial
bulge phase characterized by a uniformly increasing upward (lifting) force in
January 2010.
(b)
Transitional
phase
The transition is from
the regular to a bulge deformation, pulling down (dotted arrow) the subducting
Northwestern Pacific Plate by the fault coupling. A massive action in the
transition from the regular to bulge deformation made the overriding tectonic
plate’s eastern edge take hold of a significant barrier
(on fault) 2.8 mm deep. The pull began in July 2010.
(c)
Final
phase
The final phase is the
upheaval deformation rupturing the fault surface and activating an enormous
reaction (dotted arrow) to generate the megathrust EQ and a tsunami on March
11, 2011. The upheaval began in November 2010.
The Pacific
plate’s abnormal motion and a megathrust EQ disaster-prevention
warning
1.
A bulge deformation of a few
millimeters over Tohoku started an initial phase of three processes in Jan
2010.
2.
In June 2010, the east coast changed
the deformation to the next phase and, in one month, began pulling the
subducting Pacific Plate westward, nine months before the M9 EQ on Mar 11,
2011.
3.
The motion gradually gained westward
speed, reaching an abnormal 0.69 mm/day on Dec 22, 2010, three times higher
than usual.
4.
About one month before the highest
speed observation, the east coast began the final deformation phase with an
upheaval growing.
5.
Its linear growth decelerated, stopped,
and reversed the westward motion by two weeks before the event.
6.
The upheaval grew to 1.2 mm over 115
days, rupturing the fault plane and releasing an enormous reaction force to
generate the megathrust earthquake.
The fifteen-month megathrust earthquake
genesis process suggests that such events are predictable in real-time. From
Dec 22, 2010, the megathrust EQ genesis was in the final process.
Thus,
we identify the last three-month process of the oceanic plate motion as a
megathrust EQ disaster-prevention warning, like a typhoon warning.
The subducting
oceanic plate’s westward movement is under the lunar
synodic tidal force loading
for 30 (29.5) days. The east coast bulge
deformation started to pull down the subducting plate as a new external force.
Any external force coupling with the westward oceanic plate motion gradually
changes the 30-day periodic lunar responses in amplitudes and phases.
The unusual
change began in July 2010, 9 months before the 2011 Tohoku M9 EQ. The regular
westward movement rate per day was about twice that of a human’s
fingernail growth rate of 0.1㎜/day.
The unusual
movement reached the highest speed of about three times the usual on 22 Dec
2010. Then, the motion got to slow down and stooped on 25 Feb 2011. The
movement reversed the direction and reached eastward 0.06 mm/day on 8 Mar 2011.
The unusually decelerated
movement of the subducting plate is a real-time reflection of the last three
months of the megathrust genesis process. The unusual move is the abnormal
paths on D (displacement)－V (velocity) and D
― A (acceleration) planes. Thus, observing the unique
oceanic plate motion becomes a real-time disaster prevention warning for the
megathrust EQ and tsunami.
Megathrust EQ’s real-time disaster prevention warning is the abnormal D－V and D−A path in subducting plate movements
As detailed in reference [1], Physical Wavelets observe the Tohoku megathrust EQ genesis
process in a noisy d (E, j ) at
Chichijima station
with D
−V and D −A path、and
PW (E, τ) in real-time.
Drawing descriptions
1)
The green d (E, j ) is the daily displacement
(from West to Eastward) of Chichijima
station at day j. The displacement is the station’s
movement from an arbitrarily chosen initial position.
2)
The
vertical offset scales (left) are in m (meters) with a magnification of 2500 (ｍ/2500). The horizontal scales are time in days. The
expanded time window is from j = 3500 (December 23, 2009),
to j = 3940 (March 8, 2011)
3)
The
offset origin (０ m) is arbitrarily chosen for graphics.
The origin has a value of − 0.35 m from the station’s initial reference position. The minus is downward (westward)
from the position.
4)
The graphical origin shares the origin 0 for velocity V (E,
τ) and acceleration A (E,
τ）in relative scales.
The
plus scale is upward and eastward, and the minus is downward and westward.
5) The green d
(E, j ) is from up to down, indicating the
westward movement of the GPS station; namely, the northwestern Pacific plate is
moving westward.
6)
The
red
D
(E, τ) is the moving average of green d (E, j ) over 15 days (2w +1, w = 7), and time τ is in days. The time τ is τ= j −w.
7)
Velocity V (Ｅ, τ) in black and
acceleration A (Ｅ, τ)
in blue are the first- and second-order difference rates of s
= 20 days.
The green d (E,
j ) fluctuates due to various environmental noises, which is non-time
differentiable. The correlation integrals of d (E, j )
with Physical Wavelets define D (Ｅ,τ), V (Ｅ,τ), and A(E,τ).
The time-reversal operation is to change
τ
to – τ, for which D (E,
τ), V (E,
τ), and A (E,
τ) have the properties of D (E,
– τ) = D (E,
τ), V (E,
– τ) =
− V (E,
τ), and A (E, – τ) = A(E,
τ). They satisfy the time differential properties on
the differentiable D (E,
τ) and V (E,
τ).
8)
The vertical relative scale for power
PW (E, τ) =
V (E,
τ)
×
A (E,
τ) is on the right column.
9)
The
monitoring with PW (E, τ) ≥ 350 detected an
anomalous lunar synodic loading on
d
(E, j ). The predetermined threshold of 350 at the red level was
about twice the expected standard power level. The anomalous V (E, τ) and A (E, τ)
were bold under PW (E, τ)
≥ 350. The red column height difference is the
corresponding power change at the first detection.
10)The
timeτlags asτ= j−s−w = j−27. Thus, a real-time
automated
PW (E, j)
monitoring is PW (E, j ) =
V (E, j
)
×
A (E,
j
) with j
= τ + s + w = τ+ 27 and standard thresholds.
11)The
D (E, τ)−V (E, τ) and D (E, τ)−A (E, τ) path monitoring on the
D − V and
D – A plane：
The (D, V) = (4 cm, 1 mm/day) plane has an
offset origin at the blue-line-scale – 50, D (E, τ) = – 0.22 m (–
0.2 – 50/2500). The V (E, τ) origin is 0 mm/day.
The
right half of the D (E, τ) –
V (E, τ) plane is east of the offset origin. The
upper half is eastward and positive V (E, τ). The lower half is westward and negative.
The (D, A) = (32 mc, 0.04mm/day2)
has the same property of (D, V). The A (E, τ) origin is
０ｍｍ/day２. The upper half is positive with the
eastward acceleration.
A real-time
megathrust EQ genesis process revealed by the subducting oceanic plate movement
in Figures b & c
The lunar synodic tidal force loading
of the 29.5-day-period has 30 days on the blue A (E, τ).
The date label 2010/07/11 is the
D (E, τ) trend change (bulge deformation
in transition) at τ = 3700 (July 11,
2010), starting to pull down the oceanic plate.
The M7.9 is the off-Chichijima EQ
triggered by the abnormal oceanic plate movement.
The EQ is
M7.9
(2010/12/22) in the strain energy accumulation and release cycles in Nation 3.
The real-time disaster prevention
warning with the megathrust EQ genesis process of the last three months in Figures b & c
The motion gradually gained westward speed,
reaching an abnormal 0.69 mm/day on December 22, 2010, three times higher than
usual, rupturing the M7.9 EQ.
The movement stopped on February 25,
2011. It reversed the move. The eastward speed reached 0.06 mm/day on March 8,
2011 (the last operational day at Chichijima station).
No disaster prevention warnings as of
2022/09/07
As of
September 7, 2022, the subducting
northwestern Pacific Plate and the Philippine Sea Plate do not have abnormal
movements; no disaster prevention warnings exist.
However, the Mw 9.1 EQ
and a 34 m-height tsunami anticipated by Japan’s
cabinet office do not have any scientific evidence like the megathrust EQ
genesis process observed in the 2011 Tohoku M9 EQ and tsunami.
Three
major EQs anticipated at any time in the Nankai trough are
Tokai EQ (1),
Tonankai EQ (2),
and Nankai EQ (3).
Japan’s cabinet office anticipates a chain coupling of the three fault ruptures that will generate an M９.1 megathrust EQ.
However, the anticipated three-fault
coupling rupture has no scientific evidence like the 2011 Tohoku megathrust EQ
genesis process outlined above. The GPS observation of Tohoku and the
subducting northwestern Pacific plate over 15 years before the Tohoku M9 EQ had
anticipated a megathrust EQ and tsunami at any time. As the GPS observations in
reference [1] show, there is no
scientific evidence for the anticipated megathrust EQ and tsunami in the Nankai
trough like the 2011 Tohoku M9 events.
The GPS observation on the Nankai trough
as of 2022/09/07
The GPS observations on Omaezaki (Tokai EQ),
Shiono Misaki (Tonankai EQ), and Muroto Misaki (Nankai EQ) area show that each
fault locally couples the subducting Philippine Sea plate with overriding
western Japan’s east coast. Thus, we anticipate each
significant EQ at any time. However, there is no three-fault coupling evidence
observed.
A monthly
analysis like the figure summary in references [1-3] above
and the megathrust EQ’s disaster prevention warning is
available only for a membership.
An
EQ event has the property of the hypocenter (in latitude LAT, longitude LON, and
depth DEP), its origin time (event
time), and magnitude MAG. They are
the so-called EQ source parameters. The interval between consecutive event times
is the inter-event interval (INT).
We
express an EQ parameter as d (c, m)
at the chronological event-index time m,
where c = LAT, LON, DEP, INT,
and MAG. The consecutive EQ events
change parameter d (c, m),
drawing a zigzagged trajectory in the c-coordinate space. Each component path
is non-time differentiable. Physical Wavelets are the only mathematical tool to
observe significant and megathrust EQ genesis processes by quantifying such
stochastic pathways.
A strain-energy
accumulation and release cycle
Nation 3
The observations until 2022/09/17 and
2022/09/18
As in references [2] and [3], Physical Wavelets observe a strain-energy accumulation and release cycle during the significant and megathrust EQ genesis processes with an online JMA seismic catalog having one- or two-day latency. An automated Hi-Net record may fill the latency.
One
group of figures is until 2022/09/17, and another is until 2022/18. They show
the Taiwan M
6.6 EQ on 2022/09/17 and the
Taiwan M 7.3 on 2022/09/18. The catalog has assigned the M6.6’s
DEP as 0 km, separating figures to the EQs with DEP ≥ 0km
and another with the EQs of DEP > 0km. The strain-energy cycle generally
peaks a few days before a significant event occurs in wide regions like Nation
3.
Thus,
a rapid decrease from the peak accumulation in the 2022/09/17 figure shows the
M6.6. The M7.3 main shock is yet to appear on the cycle.
Observation until 2022/09/18
The
Taiwan M 7.3 on 2022/09/18 appears.
Figure
descriptions
A
moving
j sum of 2s consecutive
d (INT,
j )s and 2s d (DEP, j )s at the index time m
express the strain energy density in a selected region. Significant and
megathrust EQ genesis processes in the region accompany the strain energy
accumulation and release cycles. Their normalized cycles with the past maximums
are NCI (m, 2s) for ∑d (INT,
j ) and NCD (m,
2s) for ∑d (DEP,
j ). The summing
total number is 2s = 100 and 30 for
NCI
(m, 2s) and 2s = 30 for
NCD
(m, 2s). The NCD (m, 2s)
excludes EQs cataloged with
d (DEP, j
) = 0 km.
For a region of
Nation 3, EQs are
d (MAG, j
)
≥
4; namely, M ≥ 4.
1)
The left
vertical axis is the normalized scales for NCI (m, 2s) and NCD (m, 2s).
2)
The
horizontal axis is the chronological event index m,
one-to-one correspondence
to event (origin) time. The 2010/01/01 is m
= 1.
3)
The
right vertical scales are magnitude M for
d (MAG, m
) ≥ 6.
4)
The
upper vertical scales are relative to
d (LON, m
). Localized consecutive dots are EQ swarms or aftershocks of significant
EQs.
The NCI(m,
2s) and NCD(m, 2s) generally peak a few days before a significant
event occurs in large regions. NCI(m, 2s)
and NCD(m, 2s) increase to their
peaks together, and then they rapidly decrease from their peaks, during which a
large shallow event occurs, as the Taiwan M6.6 and M7.3.
If the expected
event is significant and deep, like EQs in the Wadati-Benioff zone, NCD(m,
2s) keeps increasing.
Normalized
strain-energy cycle on the 2011 Tohoku M9 in Nation 3
Normalized
strain-energy cycle
on the off-Chichijima
M7.9 (2010/12/22), a foreshock M7.5(2011/03/09), and the Tohoku M9 (2011/03/11)
(a) The normalized
strain-energy-density time series (cycle) of
NCI(m, 30) and NCD(m,
30) from 12 Aug 2010 to 11 Mar 2011. Their time series are the EQs of MAG ≥ 4 from the
JMA unified focus catalogs for the region of LAT = 16°–52° N and LON = 116°–156° E. The 22 Dec 2010 M7.9 at m =
16695 is a precursory event to the 2011 Tohoku M9, which occurred near
Chichijima (an island in the Pacific Ocean). A large foreshock to the M9 event
at m = 17287 is the 9 Mar 2011 M7.5.
Time m has the follo
The strain energy cycle in every small
region
Available for Membership
Regional EQ prediction Information and disaster
prevention warnings
We
express an EQ parameter as d (c, m)
at the chronological event-index time m,
where c = LAT, LON, DEP, INT,
and MAG. The consecutive EQ events
change parameter d (c, m),
drawing a zigzagged trajectory in the c-coordinate space. Each component path
is non-time differentiable.
Online
seismic catalogs have d (c,
m) at event index time m where
c = LAT, LON, DEP, INT,
and MAG. The GPS observes noisy daily displacement data; d (c,
m), where c is
the
geological axis c, denoted by E (west to east), N (south to north), and h
(down to up) in right-handed coordinates (E, N, h).
The Physical Wavelets’ observations of significant and megathrust EQ genesis
processes hidden in such stochastic time-series d (c, m) are available for
Shikoku
has a median tectonic line whose
sudden movement anticipates an M8 EQ once in 1000∼2000
years.
The white arrowed movement along the dotted fault length of 280Km anticipates M8.7 EQ.
A GPS
monthly analysis with Physical Wavelets is available for
Physical
Wavelets can quantify various systems characterized by noisy and non-time
differentiable time series.
Physical wavelets are a mathematical tool for real-time analysis of
chaotic or stochastic time-series data, as in the schematic above. The tool can
detect any faint anomaly from noisy signals and assign physical laws to it. The
detected anomaly is a deterministic and physics-based precursor to an imminent
disaster under critical observation. For example, V and A’s
product defined with Physical Wavelets is proportional to the kinetic energy
(KE) rate change, which is the power. Monitoring the power by comparing it with
predetermined threshold levels automates detecting any abnormal power leading
to the disaster. The automatic or manual threshold setting is adaptive to the
maximum rate change in a routine operation. Such precursor detections have
prevented the sudden material fractures of rotating heavy manufacturing
machinery a few hundred milliseconds before possible disasters. The detected
precursor has physical laws that help the manufacturing system improve.
Physical Wavelets are the
indispensable tool to quantify real-time megathrust and significant
earthquake genesis processes
with GPS displacements and online regional
seismic catalogs.
Keiiti Aki (1930/03/03～2005/05/17）
I have been an engineering consultant
with a
physics background, not a seismologist.
Professor
Aki had built the foundation of quantitative seismology. He was the only
seismologist who could share my prediction method like his. Before our first
accidental meeting in 2002, Professor Aki and I devised the same earthquake
(EQ) prediction idea in 2002 and 2001, respectively. He encouraged me to keep
challenging myself to accomplish the EQ prediction of his dream.
He was one of my great
mentors in making me achieve the real-time EQ prediction outlined on this
website.
Professor Aki pioneered almost every field in seismology. I point out
just two here.
In 1966, he introduced seismic moments to our scientific world with his
extraordinary physical insight to grasp fault motion with his solid
mathematical background.
In 1980, he proved first time in the world that the EQ genesis processes
among many earthquakes are statistically fractal; namely, EQ genesis processes
in various sizes are statistically self-similar. Thus, predicting only a
significant EQ is impossible. On the other hand, accomplishing EQ prediction
had been his dream throughout his life. Thus, his life-long work was to search
for seismogenic processes deviating from fractal nature to achieve his EQ
prediction dream.
As in Appendix C3 of reference [2], in
January 2005, Professor Aki went through my EQ paper, preprint, and Japanese Patent 4608643
(Application date, 2003.01.17：Issued, 2011.01.12) and
wrote me inspirational emails from Reunion in the Indian Ocean almost every day
in early 2005 like two of them dated Jan 27, 2005.
Dear Takeda-san:
I finished reading through all
the documents you sent me, and I now feel that our accidental meetings might
have been planned by someone in heaven.
cut
Thank you for the exciting
time I have had since reading your emails.
With best regards,
Kei Aki
Dear Takeda-san:
My excitement continues
from reading your paper.
cut
I have a feeling that my
dream about the future of earthquake prediction described in that paper may be
realized by you. Perhaps that was the intention of someone in heaven who
arranged several accidental meetings between you and me!
With best regards,
Kei
I believe I
have achieved his dream about the EQ prediction, as in arXiv (the megathrust and significant
earthquake genesis processes).
Please read the EQ genesis processes’ references above, and work with us to mitigate EQ and other
natural disasters. Your working environment will be very flexible. Graduate
students are also welcome with financial support to stay in Japan.
Please email your resume, preferable working
environment, expected achievements, and how to work with us in pdf. We use your
pdf application only for our consideration. Our email address is epi21 at mark
cap.ocn.ne.jp.
Purpose
Financial support from various corporations and organizations will make Epi21 a
permanent public interest organization. The public Epi21 will open EQ disaster
prevention warnings to the public for free, like typhoon warnings.
The current generation has enjoyed a peaceful life after WW 2 through the
unimaginable sacrifices of previous generations, except for the 1995 Kobe EQ and
the 2011 Tohoku megathrust EQ with tsunamis. Anticipated large EQs and
megathrust EQs with tsunamis will ruin the next generation's happy life. Public
support for Epi21 is essential to mitigate significant and megathrust EQ
(tsunami) disasters in one to hundreds of years. Epi21's Physical Wavelets to
formulate EQ genesis processes can also make global warming prevention disaster
warnings.
Weekly
earthquake prediction information is available for a paid membership.
Membership is for local authorities and corporations.
Please make
membership inquiries by email to epi21 at mark cap.ocn.ne.jp.
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cooperated along with https://www.tec21.jp opened in June 2003. Last Updated:
2022/09/27 ０２:54